BEST BALL · ADP INDEX

Buy green. Never red.

Every player carries a chip for where his price sits inside his own draft-day swing — the gap between the cheapest and priciest he's gone. Wide swing + cheap end = your window. Wide swing + top tick = walk away.

Green — his price is napping. Draft window open.

Red — you'd be buying his top tick. Walk away.

Gray/Amber — market agrees, or he's mid-range. No edge either way.

Chip size (below) tracks how wild the swing is — a big chip on green is the whole point of this page.

Why 8%?

12 teams draft. If you entered every draft and never played favorites, you'd own each player in 1 of every 12 — about 8%. That's sea level. Above 8% you're making a bet; below it you're fading him. Neither is wrong — but bets should be bought green, never red. Underweight a guy and he flips green? That's your window. Overweight and he's red? Stop clicking him, go click someone green instead.

Live index · 150 priced players · trajectory arrows on from 4 stored market snapshots · refreshed 2026-07-10.

🟢 Windows open 5

Seattle Defense DEF · SEA · range 66–110

Going 97.3 — near his floor price

Lamar Jackson QB · BAL · range 25–68

Going 53.7 — near his floor price

Ricky Pearsall WR · SF · range 78–117

Going 103.7 — near his floor price

Jalen Coker WR · CAR · range 85–119

Going 111.3 — near his floor price

Denzel Boston WR · CLE · range 111–144

Going 135.2 — near his floor price

🔴 Step away 2

Kyle Pitts Sr. TE · ATL · range 63–135

Going 87 — his top tick

Jacksonville Defense DEF · JAX · range 117–161

Going 129.8 — his top tick

⚪ 40 players in calm water — show the calm water ▾

— Bijan Robinson RB · ATL · 1–4

— Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET · 1–4

— Puka Nacua WR · LAR · 1–4

— Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN · 1–7

— Christian McCaffrey RB · SF · 3–9

— Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA · 2–10

— Jonathan Taylor RB · IND · 2–12

— Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET · 5–12

— De'Von Achane RB · MIA · 2–13

— Justin Jefferson WR · MIN · 5–16

— CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL · 6–16

— Ashton Jeanty RB · LV · 6–17

— Drake London WR · ATL · 8–17

— James Cook III RB · BUF · 7–21

— A.J. Brown WR · NE · 8–20

— Derrick Henry RB · BAL · 7–24

— Chase Brown RB · CIN · 9–21

— Omarion Hampton RB · LAC · 7–26

— George Pickens WR · DAL · 12–22

— Saquon Barkley RB · PHI · 11–29

— Chris Olave WR · NO · 16–26

— Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI · 18–27

— Kenneth Walker III RB · KC · 15–29

— Nico Collins WR · HOU · 15–32

— Zay Flowers WR · BAL · 24–31

— Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ · 19–31

— Tee Higgins WR · CIN · 23–34

— Rashee Rice WR · KC · 18–34

EH Josh Allen QB · BUF · 10–41

— Josh Jacobs RB · GB · 21–39

— Trey McBride TE · ARI · 15–37

— DeVonta Smith WR · PHI · 20–38

— Breece Hall RB · NYJ · 21–37

— Kyren Williams RB · LAR · 21–43

— Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR · 22–41

— Javonte Williams RB · DAL · 24–42

EH Brock Bowers TE · LV · 20–48

— Ladd McConkey WR · LAC · 23–47

— Terry McLaurin WR · WAS · 30–53

— Cam Skattebo RB · NYG · 25–47

What this is: the same app-permitted FFC mock-draft ADP spread (high/low/stdev) behind The Consensus, with a directive layered on top: at a 8.3% even-weight portfolio (12-team league), buy the wide-swing dips and let the wide-swing peaks pass you by. Trajectory arrows reuse the same snapshot history as the Movers. Season 2026, refreshed 2026-07-10.